The Economist’s election modelling should cheer Emmanuel Macron

MOROSITÉ, MALHEUR, dégagisme: these are gloomy times in France. Covid-19 may be on the way out, but it still hampers daily life and the smooth running of the economy. Inflation, driven by disease-induced supply-chain kinks and spiking natural-gas prices, threatens household budgets. Russia and Ukraine are on the brink of war. Small wonder that only 17% of the French think 2022 will be better than 2021, and that some 45% intend in April to cast their first-round vote for a presidential candidate from the political extremes. Yet despite it all, President Emmanuel Macron has a four-in-five chance of winning re-election, according to the new election model that we launch this week.