How we forecast the French election
We reveal our statistical model—and how it works
EMMANUEL MACRON once longed for a more “Jupiterian” presidency. This April he may realise his dream by securing a rare second term in the Elysée. At the launch of The Economist’s statistical model for the French election, Mr Macron’s lead in the polls suggests that he has a 79% chance to come away victorious. In political terms, there is still an aeon until April 10th, when the first round among a dozen candidates takes place, let alone the two-candidate run-off to be held on April 24th. Updated daily, our model will keep track of his and his rivals’ fortunes until the votes are cast. If Mr Macron succeeds, he will be the first president to win re-election since Jacques Chirac achieved the feat two decades ago.
This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline “Elysian stakes”
Graphic detail February 5th 2022
From the February 5th 2022 edition
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