America’s property market suggests recession is on the way

Springtime in America, which is just around the corner, brings many fine traditions. The crack of the bat on baseball diamonds. Children rolling Easter eggs on the White House lawn. Families putting out dusty, old furniture in yard sales. There is, though, one ritual that towers above all others in its sheer financial importance: spring selling season, when the housing market comes to life—or, on rare occasions, fails to do so. It may be the single biggest determinant of the global economic outlook for the rest of this year, with a recession at one end of the spectrum and the softest of landings at the other.