How wrong could America’s pollsters be?
Gamblers are a lot more confident that Donald Trump will win
DESPITE POLLS being in essence tied, gamblers betting on the outcome of America’s presidential election are increasingly confident that Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, will win. Polymarket, a prediction market that has seen over $2.6bn traded on the election, gives him a two-in-three chance. Gamblers are in effect betting that polls are underestimating him for the third time in a row.
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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “Miss calculation”
United States November 2nd 2024
- What to watch for on election night, and beyond
- Will Donald Trump’s bros turn out?
- How wrong could America’s pollsters be?
- Could a mechanic in Nebraska determine control of the Senate?
- The fight to win the most unruly institution in Washington
- This campaign is also demonstrating America’s democratic vitality
From the November 2nd 2024 edition
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A more fragmented media is tougher to manage
An FBI sting operation catches Jackson’s mayor taking big bribes
What the sensational undoing of the black leader means for Mississippi’s failing capital
America’s rural-urban divide nurtures wannabe state-splitters
What’s behind a new wave of secessionism
Does Donald Trump have unlimited authority to impose tariffs?
Yes, but other factors could hold him back
As Jack Smith exits, Donald Trump’s allies hint at retribution
The president-elect hopes to hand the Justice Department to loyalists
Democratic states are preparing for Donald Trump’s return
But Mr Trump will be more prepared, too