More mail-in voting doubles the chances of recounts in close states
We ran 100,000 simulations to quantify this effect
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY goes into its virtual convention next week in a mess. According to The Economist’s election model, the president is trailing by nine points in the popular vote and is currently expected to end up roughly 70 electoral votes shy of the 270-vote threshold on polling day. But has Donald Trump found a way to stack the deck in his favour? A large number of Americans will cast votes by post between now and November. And the US Postal Service, which has to deliver those votes, is in the midst of a partisan fight.
This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “The postmaster always rings twice”
United States August 22nd 2020
- More mail-in voting doubles the chances of recounts in close states
- America’s black upper class and Black Lives Matter
- War heroes no longer dominate American politics as they once did
- American national-security maximalism can be self-defeating
- Drilling in Alaska’s national wildlife refuge makes no sense
- Democrats set factionalism aside for the big push against Donald Trump
- Paid fellowships in the United States
From the August 22nd 2020 edition
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Donald Trump may find it harder to dominate America’s conversation
A more fragmented media is tougher to manage
An FBI sting operation catches Jackson’s mayor taking big bribes
What the sensational undoing of the black leader means for Mississippi’s failing capital
America’s rural-urban divide nurtures wannabe state-splitters
What’s behind a new wave of secessionism
Does Donald Trump have unlimited authority to impose tariffs?
Yes, but other factors could hold him back
As Jack Smith exits, Donald Trump’s allies hint at retribution
The president-elect hopes to hand the Justice Department to loyalists
Democratic states are preparing for Donald Trump’s return
But Mr Trump will be more prepared, too