The Economist explains

Why India’s population is about to overtake China’s

For the first time in recorded history, China will not be the world’s biggest country

Mandatory Credit: Photo by DIVYAKANT SOLANKI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock (13879640l)People wait on the platform to board a local train at Boriwali railway station in Mumbai, India, 20 April 2023. India's population will outstrip China's population to become the most populous country in the world, as estimated by the State of the World Population report of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).India to become the most populous country, Mumbai - 20 Apr 2023
Image: Rex Shutterstock

INDIA’S POPULATION is poised to surpass China’s. No one knows exactly when: India’s government postponed the census due in 2021 (because of the covid-19 pandemic, it says), so its numbers are not as exact as they might have been. But, according to the United Nations, a reliable guide on demographic matters, India and China had the same population in April 2023 (1,426m). Since China’s population is falling and India’s is rising, it is a safe bet that the latter will overtake the former imminently.

From the April 29th 2023 edition

Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

Explore the edition

More from The Economist explains

 English: Portrait of Santa Claus, by Thomas Nast, Published in Harper's Weekly, 1881

Where does Santa come from?

How a miracle-working Greek bishop, Dutch folk figure and early New York icon became the ubiquitous symbol of Christmas

 Islamist-led Syrian rebel fighters shoot in the air in the early hours of December 8, 2024, after taking over the central city of Homs overnight.

Who are the main rebel groups in Syria?

They were united against the country’s dictator. Now they have little in common


Close-up of chrysotile asbestos fibers on a gloved hand.

Is RFK junior right to say America allows more toxins than the EU?

He is, but things are slowly beginning to change


What would it cost to kill coal?

The price of shutting down coal power, and what would be gained

Should America ban fluoride in its drinking water?

The idea by Robert F. Kennedy junior—nominated by Donald Trump as health secretary—may have teeth

Why is Donald Trump keen to use “recess appointments”?

The president-elect is testing the loyalty of the Senate’s next majority leader