Our forecast puts Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck and neck
We relaunch our presidential-election model for a transformed race
THE MOOD among Democrats, as they prepare to gather for their national convention in Chicago next week, is ebullient. Kamalamentum has transformed the presidential contest. Meanwhile, the Republicans are finding it hard to adjust to the new dynamics: the glitch that delayed the start of Donald Trump’s conversation with Elon Musk, carried live on X on August 12th, was emblematic of a campaign that is no longer going to plan. Yet if there is one lesson from this wild election year, it is that things can change with remarkable speed.
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This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline “A coin toss for the White House”
Leaders August 17th 2024
From the August 17th 2024 edition
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Lessons from the failure of Northvolt
Governments blew billions on a battery champion. Time to welcome foreign investors instead
How to make a success of peace talks with Vladimir Putin
The key is robust security guarantees for Ukrainians
Javier Milei: “My contempt for the state is infinite”
Argentina’s president is idolised by the Trumpian right. They should get to know him better
Tariff threats will do harm, even if Donald Trump does not impose them
The risk of a trade war is uncomfortably high
Peace in Lebanon is just a start
Donald Trump must build on Joe Biden’s belated success
From Nixon to China, to Trump to Tehran
Iran is weak. For America’s next president that creates an opportunity