Finance & economics | Buttonwood

What a third world war would mean for investors

Global conflicts have a habit of sneaking up on money-managers

Illustration of a man watching the financial markets, behind him is a globe with a lit fuse
Image: Satoshi Kambayashi

Europe had been moving towards the slaughterhouse for years, and by 1914 a conflict was all but inevitable—that, at least, is the argument often made in hindsight. Yet at the time, as Niall Ferguson, a historian, noted in a paper published in 2008, it did not feel that way to investors. For them, the first world war came as a shock. Until the week before it erupted, prices in the bond, currency and money markets barely budged. Then all hell broke loose. “The City has seen in a flash the meaning of war,” wrote this newspaper on August 1st 1914.

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This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Boom times”

From the November 4th 2023 edition

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