Weather is again determining economic outcomes

“Now the rains had really come,” writes Chinua Achebe, in “Things Fall Apart”, a novel set in 19th-century Nigeria, “so heavy and persistent that even the village rainmaker no longer claimed to be able to intervene. He could not stop the rain now, just as he would not attempt to start it in the heart of the dry season, without serious danger to his own health.” In agrarian economies, of the sort depicted in Achebe’s novel, the economic cycle and weather move in tandem. When the rains arrive at the right time, the harvest is bountiful and prosperity follows. In contrast, drought brings the risk of starvation and death. The rainmaker—much like the modern-day central banker—may attempt to smooth out the business cycle, literally dampening things down when they get too hot. Ultimately, though, it is the power of nature that decides the outcome.