Finance & economics | Free exchange

Inflation shows both the value and limits of monetary-policy rules

A search for the right equation to overcome the fallibility of human judgment

It was a curious omission. In February, when the Federal Reserve published the winter edition of its semi-annual report to Congress, it dropped a normal section outlining the appropriate level of interest rates as determined by “monetary-policy rules”. Its inclusion might have been awkward, because it would have suggested that rates should be as high as 9%, when the Fed still had them near to 0%. In subsequent hearings at least three members of Congress pressed Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, to explain its absence. Mr Powell promised that the section would be back in its next report. And so it was when the summer edition was published on June 17th—though only after the Fed had started to catch up to the rules’ prescriptions by rapidly raising rates.

This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Disciples of discipline”

Europe’s coming winter peril

From the July 16th 2022 edition

Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

Explore the edition

More from Finance & economics

A ping pong game with a container instead of a ball.

Do tariffs raise inflation?

Usually. But the bigger problem is that they harm economic growth and innovation

A Gulfstream G600 from Hampshire Aviation Company lands at Barcelona Airport in Barcelona, Spain.

European governments struggle to stop rich people from fleeing

Exit taxes are popular, and counter-productive


Eagle claws, getting ready to collect bonds from a top hat.

Saba Capital wages war on underperforming British investment trusts

How many will end up in Boaz Weinstein’s sights?


Has Japan truly escaped low inflation?

Its central bankers are increasingly hopeful

How American bankers dodged the MAGA carnage

The masters of the universe have escaped an anti-globalist revolt