Even China’s official economic figures look bleak
The most spectacular declines are in the all-important property sector
When china was locked down during the first wave of the pandemic in early 2020, economic forecasters had to make two predictions: how much would the economy suffer? And how much of this suffering would the official statistics be allowed to reflect? When China reported a historic 13.5% decline in industrial production in January and February 2020, compared with a year earlier, it surprised many forecasters not because it diverged from their bleak view of the economy, but because it challenged their cynical view of the statisticians.
This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “When bad data are good”
Finance & economics May 21st 2022
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