Europe | Waiting for the freeze

The Ukrainian army has got better at fighting Russian-backed separatists

But now war of a different kind looms

|KYIV

WHAT TO MAKE of the military analysts who calmly list the reasons why the most serious war in Europe since 1945 might begin in January? The flat, muddy terrain of south-eastern Ukraine will be frozen solid by then, allowing Russian tanks to roll in. It is in the middle of the deployment cycle for the conscripts who make up much of Russia’s ground forces. And Russia may find itself with a pretext for invasion, since the new year has in the past brought front-line flare-ups in Ukraine’s war against Russian-backed separatists. Besides, the 100,000 Russian troops massed near the border are more than mere theatre; Russia is setting up field hospitals and calling up its reserves.

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline “Waiting for the freeze”

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