Emmanuel Macron is highly likely to be re-elected as France’s president
The Economist’s election model derives probabilities from the polls and past experience
SO KEEN ARE the French to evict any leader they vote into office that the language even has a word for it: dégagisme. No French president has been re-elected for 20 years. This April, five years after Emmanuel Macron seized the presidency in his first attempt at winning elected office, voters will decide whether to keep him on for a second term. The Economist’s election model, launched on February 2nd, suggests that they will. It puts Mr Macron’s chance of re-election at 79%. If he wins, the 44-year-old will break yet another rule of French politics.
This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline “Macron, odds on”
Europe February 5th 2022
From the February 5th 2022 edition
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