China | Lives on the lines

Our model shows that China’s covid death toll could be massive

It should act as a wake-up call for the government

BEIJING, CHINA - DECEMBER 09: Medical workers wear PPE as they pushes a patient on a stretcher to a fever clinic on December 9, 2022 in Beijing, China. As part of a 10 point directive, Chinas government announced Wednesday that people with COVID-19 who have mild or no symptoms will be permitted to quarantine at home instead of at a government facility, testings requirements are reduced, people are permitted to buy over the counter medications, and local officials can no longer lock down entire neighbourhoods or cities, a major shift in its zero COVID policy. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

Modelling a covid-19 epidemic anywhere is difficult. But it is especially hard in China, where the data are often unreliable. Take the official case numbers, which suggest the current outbreak is waning. It is clearly not. No one knows the true state of the epidemic in China.

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “Lives on the lines”

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