Britain’s labour-market figures are less reliable than they were
How tight is tight? The problem of deciphering the jobs market
An accurate speedometer is a prerequisite to safe driving. So it is with monetary policy. The Bank of England has hit the economic brakes very hard since late 2021, increasing its benchmark policy rate from 0.1% in early December 2021 to 5.5% now. Although the bank paused its policy tightening at its latest meeting in September, it warned that rates may still have to rise further to reduce inflationary pressure. Policymakers fret that despite a slowing economy, the jobs market remains tight and rapid wage growth could entrench high inflation. One problem the bank faces is that core jobs-market data are now much less reliable than they once were. The speedometer may be faulty.
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This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline “How tight is tight? ”
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