Why Kamala Harris’s chances of victory just jumped
Our forecast now puts her level with Donald Trump
Our statistical model of America’s presidential election will be updated six more times before votes are counted. There are few opportunities for candidates to move the dial in an election which has been stubbornly close since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. Today’s update will cheer her supporters: the vice-president’s probability of victory rose by six percentage points, making the race a dead heat.
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