United States | Poll position
Why Donald Trump has moved ahead in our election forecast
With two weeks to go, the Republican candidate now has a slight lead
FOR THE first time since August, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in The Economist’s statistical model of America’s presidential election. Our latest forecast shows that Mr Trump has a 54% chance of returning to the White House, up six percentage points during the past week. Although the race still remains more or less a coin toss, it is now weighted slightly in Mr Trump’s direction.
Explore more
Discover more
Does Donald Trump have unlimited authority to impose tariffs?
Yes, but other factors could hold him back
As Jack Smith exits, Donald Trump’s allies hint at retribution
The president-elect hopes to hand the justice department to loyalists
Democratic states are preparing for Donald Trump’s return
But Mr Trump will be more prepared, too
Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are coming for the spooks
The president-elect’s intelligence picks suggest a radical agenda
Checks and Balance newsletter: Trump is embracing a shift in Republican priorities
Will he follow through on his policy commitments?
Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration as America’s attorney-general
Will the Senate be brave enough to block Donald Trump’s other outlandish nominees?