The South China Sea could become a major flashpoint in 2025

By Jeremy Page, Asia diplomatic editor, The Economist

In early 2024 Taiwan looked like the most dangerous flashpoint in Asia. China, which claims the self-governing island as its own, was frustrated by Lai Ching-te’s victory in a presidential election there in January. It had branded him a “dangerous separatist” who could provoke war. Soon after his inauguration in May, Chinese forces staged two days of naval and air drills around the island, putting military commanders on edge in America, bound as it is, by law, to help Taiwan defend itself.