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The World Ahead | United States in 2024

Three economic risks facing America in 2024

The economy has dodged a recession, but it is not out of the woods yet

Shoppers In Manhattan On Black Friday
Image: Bloomberg via Getty Images

By Simon Rabinovitch

America’s economy in 2023 provided a lesson in humility for forecasters. Before the year began, almost all predicted that it was heading for sluggish growth at best, and a recession at worst. The logic was simple: beating inflation was bound to be painful. Instead, America powered ahead at an annualised pace of roughly 2% growth, even as inflation receded.

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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2024 under the headline “Hard numbers ”

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