Though thousands of Palestinians are going back to northern Gaza, rebuilding their lives and homes will take years. Just a week into the ceasefire, our correspondent says peace already looks fragile. Why Russian drones are being targeted at civilians in Kherson (9:44). And would game theory help you win “The Traitors” (15:28)? Runtime: 23 min

Though thousands of Palestinians are going back to northern Gaza, rebuilding their lives and homes will take years. Just a week into the <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/01/23/trump-should-try-to-end-not-manage-the-middle-easts-oldest-conflicts?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">ceasefire</a>, our correspondent says peace already looks fragile. Why <a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/01/18/russian-pilots-appear-to-be-hunting-ukrainian-civilians?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">Russian drones</a> are being targeted at civilians in Kherson (9:44). And would game theory help you win <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/01/16/the-traitors-a-reality-tv-show-offers-a-useful-economics-lesson?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">“The Traitors” </a>(15:28)? Runtime: 23 min

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The Intelligence 

As Palestinians return to northern Gaza, peace remains fragile

Displaced Palestinians return to their homes in the northern Gaza

The Intelligence

Gaza, stripped: Palestinians return to ruins

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Jason Palmer [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m Jason Palmer.

Jason Palmer [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m Jason Palmer.

Rosie Blau [00:00:14] And I’m Rosie Blau. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Rosie Blau [00:00:14] And I’m Rosie Blau. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Jason Palmer [00:00:24] When Russian forces withdrew from the city of Hirshon more than two years ago, it seemed a triumphant liberation for Ukraine. But the artillery never really stopped and civilians are now being intentionally attacked, chased even by a new weapon. Drones.

Jason Palmer [00:00:24] When Russian forces withdrew from the city of Hirshon more than two years ago, it seemed a triumphant liberation for Ukraine. But the artillery never really stopped and civilians are now being intentionally attacked, chased even by a new weapon. Drones.

Rosie Blau [00:00:42] And if the finale of the British version of Traitors left you thinking that you’d have done better on the TV show? Well, our faithful colleague thinks you’d be as useless as the other contestants. His strategy for winning. Try using game theory. First up, though. This morning, thousands of Palestinians walked home to northern Gaza as part of the cease fire deal reached between Israel and Hamas. That followed a weekend of emotional reunions. Hamas released four Israeli soldiers in return for 200 Palestinians who’d been held in Israeli jails. But the cease fire has not been without stumbles. Just a week after the truce, peace remains fragile.

Rosie Blau [00:00:42] And if the finale of the British version of Traitors left you thinking that you’d have done better on the TV show? Well, our faithful colleague thinks you’d be as useless as the other contestants. His strategy for winning. Try using game theory. First up, though. This morning, thousands of Palestinians walked home to northern Gaza as part of the cease fire deal reached between Israel and Hamas. That followed a weekend of emotional reunions. Hamas released four Israeli soldiers in return for 200 Palestinians who’d been held in Israeli jails. But the cease fire has not been without stumbles. Just a week after the truce, peace remains fragile.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:01:43] There were some remarkable scenes on Monday morning after the cease fire in Gaza seemed to get back on track following some hiccups over the weekend.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:01:43] There were some remarkable scenes on Monday morning after the cease fire in Gaza seemed to get back on track following some hiccups over the weekend.

Rosie Blau [00:01:54] Greg Carlstrom is our Middle East correspondent.

Rosie Blau [00:01:54] Greg Carlstrom is our Middle East correspondent.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:01:58] Israeli troops withdrew from part of the corridor that bisects Gaza and thousands of Palestinians streamed from the south back to the north.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:01:58] Israeli troops withdrew from part of the corridor that bisects Gaza and thousands of Palestinians streamed from the south back to the north.

Rosie Blau [00:02:08] Greg, you talked about hiccups. There we are a week or just over a week into the cease fire. What’s been going on?

Rosie Blau [00:02:08] Greg, you talked about hiccups. There we are a week or just over a week into the cease fire. What’s been going on?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:02:16] I think the truce was put to its first major test over the weekend, beginning with Hamas violating part of the agreement. It was meant to release female Israeli civilians. And then after releasing all of those civilians to start releasing female Israeli soldiers who’ve been held captive in Gaza. What happened on Saturday instead was Hamas released four Israeli soldiers, even though there was still at least one female civilian, Nabila, who’d being held in captivity. Now, Hamas said that happened because it wasn’t actually holding her. She was being held by Islamic Jihad, another militant group in Gaza. And they weren’t able to coordinate her release. But because it broke the terms of the agreement, Israel then delayed its withdrawal from the Netsurion corridor in the centre of Gaza, which prevented Palestinians from moving between the north and the south of the territory. That does seem to have been resolved. Now, Islamic Jihad has said that, I believe, who will be freed on Thursday, that she is alive and that she is going to be released. And so once it gave that commitment, Israeli troops then began this delayed withdrawal from that corridor in the middle of Gaza.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:02:16] I think the truce was put to its first major test over the weekend, beginning with Hamas violating part of the agreement. It was meant to release female Israeli civilians. And then after releasing all of those civilians to start releasing female Israeli soldiers who’ve been held captive in Gaza. What happened on Saturday instead was Hamas released four Israeli soldiers, even though there was still at least one female civilian, Nabila, who’d being held in captivity. Now, Hamas said that happened because it wasn’t actually holding her. She was being held by Islamic Jihad, another militant group in Gaza. And they weren’t able to coordinate her release. But because it broke the terms of the agreement, Israel then delayed its withdrawal from the Netsurion corridor in the centre of Gaza, which prevented Palestinians from moving between the north and the south of the territory. That does seem to have been resolved. Now, Islamic Jihad has said that, I believe, who will be freed on Thursday, that she is alive and that she is going to be released. And so once it gave that commitment, Israeli troops then began this delayed withdrawal from that corridor in the middle of Gaza.

Rosie Blau [00:03:29] And as you say, thousands of people are now streaming back into that area. What are they going to find there?

Rosie Blau [00:03:29] And as you say, thousands of people are now streaming back into that area. What are they going to find there?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:03:36] Absolute devastation. Northern Gaza has seen the brunt of the fighting over the past 15 months. It was where Israeli troops began their ground invasion back in October of 2023. And it’s where over the past few months, they have been returning over and over to some of the same neighbourhoods that they fought in a year prior. Places like Jabalia, which was once a very densely populated refugee camp in the north of Gaza. And these communities have been absolutely destroyed. So hundreds of thousands of people are going to go back to the north and find that their homes have been ruined, their businesses have been destroyed. The infrastructure has been ripped up. And all of this is going to take many, many years to rebuild. So people happy that they are no longer displaced from what was once their home in the north. But it’s going to be a long time before these places are actually homes once again.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:03:36] Absolute devastation. Northern Gaza has seen the brunt of the fighting over the past 15 months. It was where Israeli troops began their ground invasion back in October of 2023. And it’s where over the past few months, they have been returning over and over to some of the same neighbourhoods that they fought in a year prior. Places like Jabalia, which was once a very densely populated refugee camp in the north of Gaza. And these communities have been absolutely destroyed. So hundreds of thousands of people are going to go back to the north and find that their homes have been ruined, their businesses have been destroyed. The infrastructure has been ripped up. And all of this is going to take many, many years to rebuild. So people happy that they are no longer displaced from what was once their home in the north. But it’s going to be a long time before these places are actually homes once again.

Rosie Blau [00:04:31] And Greg, this devastation is something that Donald Trump was speaking about yesterday to reporters aboard Air Force One. And he said some rather surprising things. He said he thought Egypt and Jordan should take in the remaining Palestinians. And he said we just clean out that whole thing, referring to Gaza. What’s been the response to that idea?

Rosie Blau [00:04:31] And Greg, this devastation is something that Donald Trump was speaking about yesterday to reporters aboard Air Force One. And he said some rather surprising things. He said he thought Egypt and Jordan should take in the remaining Palestinians. And he said we just clean out that whole thing, referring to Gaza. What’s been the response to that idea?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:04:52] Less than a week into his presidency, and he’s already giving two of America’s closest Arab allies heart palpitations. The reaction has not been good, as you would expect from countries across the region. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, said that neither the Palestinian people nor the Palestinian government would accept being pushed off their land, would accept their territories being further divided. The foreign ministries of both Egypt and Jordan have said that they will not be complicit in what they call the displacement of Palestinians. Jordan’s foreign minister said Jordan is for Jordanians and Palestine is for Palestinians, and we will not accept anyone being pushed here. You look at these Trump comments and someone in the abstract without thinking about the history, could see this as making sense. This idea of Gaza has been destroyed and conditions there are miserable. But of course, the history is important here. The fact that Palestinians remember what they call the Nakba, the mass displacement that accompanied the creation of Israel in 1948, you had more than 700,000 Palestinians displaced from their land who have never been able to go back home. So the idea of people being pushed out of Gaza, even if it’s sold as a temporary measure, gets to some very deeply held fears amongst Palestinians, and it’s something that they would reject. It’s also something that Jordan would reject. It already has millions of refugees from Palestine, from Syria, from Iraq. It has big concerns about demographics. And it’s something that Egypt, mired in economic crisis right now, also has its own reasons to refuse.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:04:52] Less than a week into his presidency, and he’s already giving two of America’s closest Arab allies heart palpitations. The reaction has not been good, as you would expect from countries across the region. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, said that neither the Palestinian people nor the Palestinian government would accept being pushed off their land, would accept their territories being further divided. The foreign ministries of both Egypt and Jordan have said that they will not be complicit in what they call the displacement of Palestinians. Jordan’s foreign minister said Jordan is for Jordanians and Palestine is for Palestinians, and we will not accept anyone being pushed here. You look at these Trump comments and someone in the abstract without thinking about the history, could see this as making sense. This idea of Gaza has been destroyed and conditions there are miserable. But of course, the history is important here. The fact that Palestinians remember what they call the Nakba, the mass displacement that accompanied the creation of Israel in 1948, you had more than 700,000 Palestinians displaced from their land who have never been able to go back home. So the idea of people being pushed out of Gaza, even if it’s sold as a temporary measure, gets to some very deeply held fears amongst Palestinians, and it’s something that they would reject. It’s also something that Jordan would reject. It already has millions of refugees from Palestine, from Syria, from Iraq. It has big concerns about demographics. And it’s something that Egypt, mired in economic crisis right now, also has its own reasons to refuse.

Rosie Blau [00:06:23] And Greg, what’s been happening with the other cease fire agreement that’s now in place between Israel and Lebanon? And that was an earlier cease fire. I understand that there have been tensions there to this weekend.

Rosie Blau [00:06:23] And Greg, what’s been happening with the other cease fire agreement that’s now in place between Israel and Lebanon? And that was an earlier cease fire. I understand that there have been tensions there to this weekend.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:06:35] Right. That one has also been through a test. That ceasefire was meant to last for two months. It was agreed in late November. And so by this week and by this past Sunday, the deal was meant to have ended. Israel was meant to have withdrawn its troops from south Lebanon. Hezbollah was meant to have done the same, pulled them back north of the Litani River in Lebanon, and the Lebanese army was supposed to deploy into the south and take over securing the area. None of that has happened. There are still Israeli troops scattered across the south of Lebanon. Hezbollah has not pulled out all of its fighters from the region and the Lebanese army hasn’t been able to deploy there. And everyone is blaming everyone else. The Israelis are saying we can’t withdraw because the Lebanese army isn’t fully deployed. The Lebanese army is saying, well, we can’t fully deploy because the Israelis are still occupying some bits of territory. And so they’ve been at this impasse. Israel has asked the United States to extend the cease fire. They’re hoping for a 30 day extension, at least to the agreement. But on Sunday, Hezbollah decided to challenge this. And so it organised convoys of civilians to come back to the south of Lebanon to try to go back to their towns and their villages in the south. They ended up being shot at in a number of places by the Israeli army. There were at least 22 people killed, dozens more wounded. And this is a big test, the big challenge for not just the cease fire, but for Joseph Aoun, who’s the newly elected Lebanese president, former head of the Lebanese army, who was elected on a promise that the army would be deployed to the south and would be able to constrain Hezbollah and enforce the terms of the cease fire.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:06:35] Right. That one has also been through a test. That ceasefire was meant to last for two months. It was agreed in late November. And so by this week and by this past Sunday, the deal was meant to have ended. Israel was meant to have withdrawn its troops from south Lebanon. Hezbollah was meant to have done the same, pulled them back north of the Litani River in Lebanon, and the Lebanese army was supposed to deploy into the south and take over securing the area. None of that has happened. There are still Israeli troops scattered across the south of Lebanon. Hezbollah has not pulled out all of its fighters from the region and the Lebanese army hasn’t been able to deploy there. And everyone is blaming everyone else. The Israelis are saying we can’t withdraw because the Lebanese army isn’t fully deployed. The Lebanese army is saying, well, we can’t fully deploy because the Israelis are still occupying some bits of territory. And so they’ve been at this impasse. Israel has asked the United States to extend the cease fire. They’re hoping for a 30 day extension, at least to the agreement. But on Sunday, Hezbollah decided to challenge this. And so it organised convoys of civilians to come back to the south of Lebanon to try to go back to their towns and their villages in the south. They ended up being shot at in a number of places by the Israeli army. There were at least 22 people killed, dozens more wounded. And this is a big test, the big challenge for not just the cease fire, but for Joseph Aoun, who’s the newly elected Lebanese president, former head of the Lebanese army, who was elected on a promise that the army would be deployed to the south and would be able to constrain Hezbollah and enforce the terms of the cease fire.

Rosie Blau [00:08:14] So with all these tensions rising, what are the next stages of the cease fire agreement between Israel and Hamas?

Rosie Blau [00:08:14] So with all these tensions rising, what are the next stages of the cease fire agreement between Israel and Hamas?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:08:21] I think for the next few weeks, I’m sure there will be more bumps in the road. But I think there still is a desire on both sides to stick to the terms of the agreement. So there will be more these releases of hostages. Again, the next one is meant to happen on Thursday and then more releases of Palestinian prisoners. Along with that, Israel will continue this slow withdrawal from Gaza. Everyone has a reason to abide by the agreement so far, but in a week or so, they are meant to start talking about how they got to phase two, how this becomes a permanent cease fire with a full Israeli withdrawal and a release of all of the hostages. And it’s really not clear what’s going to happen there. Netanyahu was under a lot of political pressure not to get to phase two. It’s not yet clear what Donald Trump wants. He has talked about wanting this cease fire to continue. He said that he’s worried that he thinks it’s quite fragile, but he is, of course, notorious for changing his mind. And who knows where we’re going to be in five weeks. Things will remain fragile for now, but the really big test still remains. About a month or so down the road.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:08:21] I think for the next few weeks, I’m sure there will be more bumps in the road. But I think there still is a desire on both sides to stick to the terms of the agreement. So there will be more these releases of hostages. Again, the next one is meant to happen on Thursday and then more releases of Palestinian prisoners. Along with that, Israel will continue this slow withdrawal from Gaza. Everyone has a reason to abide by the agreement so far, but in a week or so, they are meant to start talking about how they got to phase two, how this becomes a permanent cease fire with a full Israeli withdrawal and a release of all of the hostages. And it’s really not clear what’s going to happen there. Netanyahu was under a lot of political pressure not to get to phase two. It’s not yet clear what Donald Trump wants. He has talked about wanting this cease fire to continue. He said that he’s worried that he thinks it’s quite fragile, but he is, of course, notorious for changing his mind. And who knows where we’re going to be in five weeks. Things will remain fragile for now, but the really big test still remains. About a month or so down the road.

Rosie Blau [00:09:27] Gregg, thank you so much for talking to me this morning.

Rosie Blau [00:09:27] Gregg, thank you so much for talking to me this morning.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:09:30] Thank you, Rosy.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:09:30] Thank you, Rosy.

Jason Palmer [00:09:47] Ukraine’s southern city of Hirshon is so far the only big city that’s been won back from Russian forces little over two years ago. After nine months as occupiers, Russian soldiers retreated just over the Geneva River. The Ukrainian military says it’s mostly moved on to, but the Russians continued to shell the city. Then in August, the regional head of the Ukrainian military says a new threat flew in. Drones.

Jason Palmer [00:09:47] Ukraine’s southern city of Hirshon is so far the only big city that’s been won back from Russian forces little over two years ago. After nine months as occupiers, Russian soldiers retreated just over the Geneva River. The Ukrainian military says it’s mostly moved on to, but the Russians continued to shell the city. Then in August, the regional head of the Ukrainian military says a new threat flew in. Drones.

Clip [00:10:15] You must live all the.

Clip [00:10:18] Motion you used to.

Jason Palmer [00:10:19] He says. There’s no sense to it because there are no military targets to hit. It’s just being done chaotically, he says. Chaotically, terrifyingly and blatantly illegally.

Jason Palmer [00:10:19] He says. There’s no sense to it because there are no military targets to hit. It’s just being done chaotically, he says. Chaotically, terrifyingly and blatantly illegally.

Wendell Steavenson [00:10:32] In the past six months, things have really gotten worse and so on.

Wendell Steavenson [00:10:32] In the past six months, things have really gotten worse and so on.

Jason Palmer [00:10:37] Wendell Stevenson writes about Ukraine for The Economist.

Jason Palmer [00:10:37] Wendell Stevenson writes about Ukraine for The Economist.

Wendell Steavenson [00:10:40] In addition to the regular daily artillery. The Russians are now specifically targeting civilians with small drones. And this is terrifying on the ground and proving to be sort of dangerously and frighteningly effective at removing a population from areas they want to depopulate.

Wendell Steavenson [00:10:40] In addition to the regular daily artillery. The Russians are now specifically targeting civilians with small drones. And this is terrifying on the ground and proving to be sort of dangerously and frighteningly effective at removing a population from areas they want to depopulate.

Jason Palmer [00:11:03] And what do things look like in person since the Russians retreated?

Jason Palmer [00:11:03] And what do things look like in person since the Russians retreated?

Wendell Steavenson [00:11:06] So life has been really difficult in Afghanistan since the Russians withdrew. I think that it’s been a great dismay to Ukrainians that when they have been able to liberate cities and territories, those areas have often been rendered almost uninhabitable because the Russians continued to shell them. And that’s certainly what’s happened in Harrison. Before the war, there was maybe 280,000 people living there. Now it’s certainly under 100,000. The neighbourhoods along the riverbank that are exposed to this barrage have been depopulating and people have been moving out because it’s just so dangerous there. But since last summer, for about the last six months, there’s been a new and increased danger of small drones with small munitions, typically a grenade or a mortar, sometimes even a canister of nails or a petrol bomb. The psychological effect of drones specifically targeting hunting and chasing civilians in cars on bicycles on foot is absolutely terrifying. So I talked to one child psychiatrist there who says that children who remain in Harrison and there are many families still there really are having their childhoods curtailed.

Wendell Steavenson [00:11:06] So life has been really difficult in Afghanistan since the Russians withdrew. I think that it’s been a great dismay to Ukrainians that when they have been able to liberate cities and territories, those areas have often been rendered almost uninhabitable because the Russians continued to shell them. And that’s certainly what’s happened in Harrison. Before the war, there was maybe 280,000 people living there. Now it’s certainly under 100,000. The neighbourhoods along the riverbank that are exposed to this barrage have been depopulating and people have been moving out because it’s just so dangerous there. But since last summer, for about the last six months, there’s been a new and increased danger of small drones with small munitions, typically a grenade or a mortar, sometimes even a canister of nails or a petrol bomb. The psychological effect of drones specifically targeting hunting and chasing civilians in cars on bicycles on foot is absolutely terrifying. So I talked to one child psychiatrist there who says that children who remain in Harrison and there are many families still there really are having their childhoods curtailed.

Clip [00:12:16] They have no possibility to go for a walk or they have no possibility to go to the cinema to play with children they know. I asked these children, what is their biggest dream they have after the war will be finished? And they told that they dream about school.

Clip [00:12:16] They have no possibility to go for a walk or they have no possibility to go to the cinema to play with children they know. I asked these children, what is their biggest dream they have after the war will be finished? And they told that they dream about school.

Jason Palmer [00:12:41] Goodness. It seems like pretty rudimentary stuff for the Russians to be using drones when they have such stockpiles of artillery here. What’s the what’s the intent? Why target civilians anyway?

Jason Palmer [00:12:41] Goodness. It seems like pretty rudimentary stuff for the Russians to be using drones when they have such stockpiles of artillery here. What’s the what’s the intent? Why target civilians anyway?

Wendell Steavenson [00:12:53] It’s not exactly clear. Certainly it’s intimidating, but it seems that they want to have the effect of getting people to leave, particularly these riverside areas that are specifically targeted. So it seems to be aimed at depopulating a part of the city and has been, you know, reasonably effective at doing that. People just can’t survive when shops are closed, hospitals, clinics are closed when it’s dangerous to leave, when it’s almost impossible to drive. Calls are routinely chased and attacked and people are terrified to go out and leave only very occasionally. You know, it’s intense. Life is really becoming unliveable there.

Wendell Steavenson [00:12:53] It’s not exactly clear. Certainly it’s intimidating, but it seems that they want to have the effect of getting people to leave, particularly these riverside areas that are specifically targeted. So it seems to be aimed at depopulating a part of the city and has been, you know, reasonably effective at doing that. People just can’t survive when shops are closed, hospitals, clinics are closed when it’s dangerous to leave, when it’s almost impossible to drive. Calls are routinely chased and attacked and people are terrified to go out and leave only very occasionally. You know, it’s intense. Life is really becoming unliveable there.

Jason Palmer [00:13:33] And I suppose it’s obvious to say so, But this is pretty brazen, right? Aiming at civilians is a war crime.

Jason Palmer [00:13:33] And I suppose it’s obvious to say so, But this is pretty brazen, right? Aiming at civilians is a war crime.

Wendell Steavenson [00:13:38] It’s a war crime to specifically target civilians. And what’s interesting is that usually when civilians are killed in war, it’s a result of either indiscriminate or a disproportionate military response. But in this case, you can really see that an individual drone is individually hunting and chasing civilian cars, ambulances, buses, people on bicycles and pedestrians chasing them, hovering overhead with a camera. The operator can clearly see what they’re attacking and hitting and then launching a munition to kill and maim and disrupt and terrify.

Wendell Steavenson [00:13:38] It’s a war crime to specifically target civilians. And what’s interesting is that usually when civilians are killed in war, it’s a result of either indiscriminate or a disproportionate military response. But in this case, you can really see that an individual drone is individually hunting and chasing civilian cars, ambulances, buses, people on bicycles and pedestrians chasing them, hovering overhead with a camera. The operator can clearly see what they’re attacking and hitting and then launching a munition to kill and maim and disrupt and terrify.

Jason Palmer [00:14:18] Is this hinting at how Russia wants to fight the war or is it simply training ground? Is this a mark of intent for another invasion of her own?

Jason Palmer [00:14:18] Is this hinting at how Russia wants to fight the war or is it simply training ground? Is this a mark of intent for another invasion of her own?

Wendell Steavenson [00:14:25] We don’t know what their intent is. There have been noises and rumours and suggestions of an attempt to cross the river again, to reoccupy, to invade the west bank of the Disney power. They have made forward moves and offensives, but they’ve not yet been successful. I spoke to Roman Morocco. Who? Is the head of the military authorities in Carson, and he says that the Russians are using Harrison as a proving ground for this kind of tactic.

Wendell Steavenson [00:14:25] We don’t know what their intent is. There have been noises and rumours and suggestions of an attempt to cross the river again, to reoccupy, to invade the west bank of the Disney power. They have made forward moves and offensives, but they’ve not yet been successful. I spoke to Roman Morocco. Who? Is the head of the military authorities in Carson, and he says that the Russians are using Harrison as a proving ground for this kind of tactic.

Clip [00:14:57] So the bureau gives or not, this.

Clip [00:14:57] So the bureau gives or not, this.

Wendell Steavenson [00:15:00] Project believes that the Russians are using civilians and have sworn to train their drone pilots. And indeed, we’re seeing that civilians are being targeted by drones in other parts of the front to.

Wendell Steavenson [00:15:00] Project believes that the Russians are using civilians and have sworn to train their drone pilots. And indeed, we’re seeing that civilians are being targeted by drones in other parts of the front to.

Jason Palmer [00:15:13] Wendell, thanks very much for your time.

Jason Palmer [00:15:13] Wendell, thanks very much for your time.

Wendell Steavenson [00:15:15] Thanks so much for having me.

Wendell Steavenson [00:15:15] Thanks so much for having me.

Gavin Jackson [00:15:31] Deep in the Scottish Highlands. There’s a castle where the faithful reside. Anyone wishing to study economics should tune into the traitors, but hidden amongst them. Three traitors. The bit of economics it should help you with is game theory. The Study of strategic interaction.

Gavin Jackson [00:15:31] Deep in the Scottish Highlands. There’s a castle where the faithful reside. Anyone wishing to study economics should tune into the traitors, but hidden amongst them. Three traitors. The bit of economics it should help you with is game theory. The Study of strategic interaction.

Rosie Blau [00:15:53] Gavin Jackson is an economics correspondent.

Rosie Blau [00:15:53] Gavin Jackson is an economics correspondent.

Gavin Jackson [00:15:56] So how you behave when you’re trying to predict how other people are also behaving?

Gavin Jackson [00:15:56] So how you behave when you’re trying to predict how other people are also behaving?

Clip [00:16:01] I think you’re a trader. I think you’re a trader. I trusted you.

Clip [00:16:01] I think you’re a trader. I think you’re a trader. I trusted you.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:04] Now, the game involves lying and betrayal, and people do all sorts of strange things in this game, although.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:04] Now, the game involves lying and betrayal, and people do all sorts of strange things in this game, although.

Clip [00:16:10] Actually it’s a bit of a spanner in the works because I’m.

Clip [00:16:10] Actually it’s a bit of a spanner in the works because I’m.

Clip [00:16:13] Not actually from Wales.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:16] I’m putting on a fake Welsh accent because they think it makes them sound more trustworthy.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:16] I’m putting on a fake Welsh accent because they think it makes them sound more trustworthy.

Clip [00:16:21] I need an accent that people can trust.

Clip [00:16:21] I need an accent that people can trust.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:22] You may not know yet and forgotten. The format was developed in the Netherlands, but it’s now spread across the world.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:22] You may not know yet and forgotten. The format was developed in the Netherlands, but it’s now spread across the world.

Clip [00:16:30] You would be a great trader.

Clip [00:16:30] You would be a great trader.

Clip [00:16:31] Are you so real? I’m not a trader. I’ve just got a big mouth.

Clip [00:16:31] Are you so real? I’m not a trader. I’ve just got a big mouth.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:35] In game theory terms. The show is a finite, sequential, incomplete information game. Now that means that it ends. It occurs in stages, and the players do not know everything.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:35] In game theory terms. The show is a finite, sequential, incomplete information game. Now that means that it ends. It occurs in stages, and the players do not know everything.

Clip [00:16:46] We only survived the train to New Year.

Clip [00:16:46] We only survived the train to New Year.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:49] A few of them are nominated by the producers as the traitors, liars seeking to get all the gold for themselves, while the remainder are the faithfuls.

Gavin Jackson [00:16:49] A few of them are nominated by the producers as the traitors, liars seeking to get all the gold for themselves, while the remainder are the faithfuls.

Clip [00:16:57] And the person sitting next to you may smile and smile.

Clip [00:16:57] And the person sitting next to you may smile and smile.

Clip [00:17:04] I wouldn’t pick that outfit, so I don’t think I trust your judgement completely.

Clip [00:17:04] I wouldn’t pick that outfit, so I don’t think I trust your judgement completely.

Gavin Jackson [00:17:07] Every night in secret, the traitors pick one of the faithfuls to murder. We’ve tasted the court for the first time. What time for the unfortunate person is that removed from the game?

Gavin Jackson [00:17:07] Every night in secret, the traitors pick one of the faithfuls to murder. We’ve tasted the court for the first time. What time for the unfortunate person is that removed from the game?

Gavin Jackson [00:17:21] The following day, the remaining players, both the faithfuls and the traitors, pick a player to banish. The numbers are whittled down night by night until a few remaining survivors split the prize. Or if a traitor has snuck by undiscovered, they get the whole pot. The only problem is they will really bad at it. Rarely does anyone follow the best method as dictated by game theory.

Gavin Jackson [00:17:21] The following day, the remaining players, both the faithfuls and the traitors, pick a player to banish. The numbers are whittled down night by night until a few remaining survivors split the prize. Or if a traitor has snuck by undiscovered, they get the whole pot. The only problem is they will really bad at it. Rarely does anyone follow the best method as dictated by game theory.

Rosie Blau [00:17:48] So, Gavin, I feel like your response here typifies the difference between us and game theory was quite far from where I got to. You think you’d be better at this, do you?

Rosie Blau [00:17:48] So, Gavin, I feel like your response here typifies the difference between us and game theory was quite far from where I got to. You think you’d be better at this, do you?

Gavin Jackson [00:17:58] I don’t know if I’d be any better out to play it, but sitting at home watching as a viewer, I found it incredibly frustrating the way that they were trying to work out who was and wasn’t a traitor.

Gavin Jackson [00:17:58] I don’t know if I’d be any better out to play it, but sitting at home watching as a viewer, I found it incredibly frustrating the way that they were trying to work out who was and wasn’t a traitor.

Rosie Blau [00:18:08] Obviously, this is something that people have been talking about work and everyone seems to think that they could do better than the guys who are actually on the TV show. Is that right?

Rosie Blau [00:18:08] Obviously, this is something that people have been talking about work and everyone seems to think that they could do better than the guys who are actually on the TV show. Is that right?

Gavin Jackson [00:18:17] So as a viewer, it’s very, very tempting to think you could, but you already have all the information. You know who the traitors are. So it seems obvious when people are lying. But obviously, if you’re within that, you have no way of telling. In a very strange environment with people you’ve never met before. And the idea that you can judge whether a stranger is telling you the truth or not is for the birds. Quite frankly, it’s not a very good strategy.

Gavin Jackson [00:18:17] So as a viewer, it’s very, very tempting to think you could, but you already have all the information. You know who the traitors are. So it seems obvious when people are lying. But obviously, if you’re within that, you have no way of telling. In a very strange environment with people you’ve never met before. And the idea that you can judge whether a stranger is telling you the truth or not is for the birds. Quite frankly, it’s not a very good strategy.

Rosie Blau [00:18:39] Given if they’re that bad at lying, how should they play the game?

Rosie Blau [00:18:39] Given if they’re that bad at lying, how should they play the game?

Gavin Jackson [00:18:43] I would say instead, think about this in terms of game theory. One thing game theory does is separate communication into two different types what’s called cheap talk and what’s called signalling. So cheap talk is where you don’t have to pay any cost for what you say. Anyone faithful or traitor can say I’m 100% faithful. Signalling is where you have to pay some sort of cost to demonstrate something. I mean, the traitors all talk is cheap. There’s nothing you can learn from what people say. Someone could stand up and shout, I am a traitor and they could be lying. Some of the show. I’m a faithful and they could be lying. Whatever they want. They can say that, well, they can hide that they’re a priest. Anything at all. None of it tells you anything.

Gavin Jackson [00:18:43] I would say instead, think about this in terms of game theory. One thing game theory does is separate communication into two different types what’s called cheap talk and what’s called signalling. So cheap talk is where you don’t have to pay any cost for what you say. Anyone faithful or traitor can say I’m 100% faithful. Signalling is where you have to pay some sort of cost to demonstrate something. I mean, the traitors all talk is cheap. There’s nothing you can learn from what people say. Someone could stand up and shout, I am a traitor and they could be lying. Some of the show. I’m a faithful and they could be lying. Whatever they want. They can say that, well, they can hide that they’re a priest. Anything at all. None of it tells you anything.

Rosie Blau [00:19:20] So where does that leave you as a whole thing? Just about luck.

Rosie Blau [00:19:20] So where does that leave you as a whole thing? Just about luck.

Gavin Jackson [00:19:24] So you do have some information. The two bits information are who gets banished and who votes for who. That’s all you have to go on. So given that we can use a solution concept from game theory called perfect Bayesian equilibrium, you’ve seen the votes, you’ve seen the banishing, and your beliefs should be rational given the votes in the banishing you’ve seen. Now to find a perfect Bayesian equilibrium, you start at the end and work out what you should believe. Given that you found yourself at the end. So if you’re faithful, what should you believe? You should think that there is still a traitor in the game who has kept you alive because you think they’re actually a faithful. So given you believe that you should betray them.

Gavin Jackson [00:19:24] So you do have some information. The two bits information are who gets banished and who votes for who. That’s all you have to go on. So given that we can use a solution concept from game theory called perfect Bayesian equilibrium, you’ve seen the votes, you’ve seen the banishing, and your beliefs should be rational given the votes in the banishing you’ve seen. Now to find a perfect Bayesian equilibrium, you start at the end and work out what you should believe. Given that you found yourself at the end. So if you’re faithful, what should you believe? You should think that there is still a traitor in the game who has kept you alive because you think they’re actually a faithful. So given you believe that you should betray them.

Rosie Blau [00:20:04] So what you’re saying is that the only way to get through is by being ignorant and loyalty is a total waste of time. Is that right? Given this useful information, if so, about a colleague?

Rosie Blau [00:20:04] So what you’re saying is that the only way to get through is by being ignorant and loyalty is a total waste of time. Is that right? Given this useful information, if so, about a colleague?

Gavin Jackson [00:20:18] Well, it’s certainly true. If you find yourself playing the traitors, it’s less good strategy if you find yourself working at The Economist. Reassuring. Now, those who’ve studied a game called Mafia, which is what the Traitors is based on, sometimes it’s called Werewolf, will tell you that the perfect Bayesian equilibrium of that game is to vote randomly. Because if anyone had any idea about who was or wasn’t a traitor, then the game would collapse. But you should follow a publicly known will roll the dice and everyone sees the dice roll and then they vote based on that. Because if everyone was randomising individually, the traitors could gang up on the faithfuls and say they were randomising, but not actually do that and banish the innocent rather than the guilty.

Gavin Jackson [00:20:18] Well, it’s certainly true. If you find yourself playing the traitors, it’s less good strategy if you find yourself working at The Economist. Reassuring. Now, those who’ve studied a game called Mafia, which is what the Traitors is based on, sometimes it’s called Werewolf, will tell you that the perfect Bayesian equilibrium of that game is to vote randomly. Because if anyone had any idea about who was or wasn’t a traitor, then the game would collapse. But you should follow a publicly known will roll the dice and everyone sees the dice roll and then they vote based on that. Because if everyone was randomising individually, the traitors could gang up on the faithfuls and say they were randomising, but not actually do that and banish the innocent rather than the guilty.

Rosie Blau [00:20:55] So I guess that works if everyone behaves like an economist would want them to.

Rosie Blau [00:20:55] So I guess that works if everyone behaves like an economist would want them to.

Gavin Jackson [00:21:00] Yes, absolutely. So this is the other reason to watch the traitors, because it shows you the gulf between the theory and the practice of game theory, because no one actually behaves like going to you, which suggests, fortunately, economists still have something to add. And what of them is a concept that the economist Colin Campbell invented called the Cognitive Hierarchy. So think of this as and people operate at different levels. So level zero, you vote for someone just because you think you’re a traitor. Level one. You vote for somebody because you want to bluff someone else. And level two, you’re double bluffing. So you’re acting like you’re level zero and you’re just doing what you think is the right thing to do. So because people aren’t rational, everyone thinks they’re following the most sophisticated strategy. And if you judge your opponent correctly and go one level higher, you can beat them. That’s the idea of the cognitive hierarchy. I think that you think that. I think the easy thing and if I can keep that chain going so I’ve got it to the highest level and not misread you, then I can beat you. And that’s one idea from game theory.

Gavin Jackson [00:21:00] Yes, absolutely. So this is the other reason to watch the traitors, because it shows you the gulf between the theory and the practice of game theory, because no one actually behaves like going to you, which suggests, fortunately, economists still have something to add. And what of them is a concept that the economist Colin Campbell invented called the Cognitive Hierarchy. So think of this as and people operate at different levels. So level zero, you vote for someone just because you think you’re a traitor. Level one. You vote for somebody because you want to bluff someone else. And level two, you’re double bluffing. So you’re acting like you’re level zero and you’re just doing what you think is the right thing to do. So because people aren’t rational, everyone thinks they’re following the most sophisticated strategy. And if you judge your opponent correctly and go one level higher, you can beat them. That’s the idea of the cognitive hierarchy. I think that you think that. I think the easy thing and if I can keep that chain going so I’ve got it to the highest level and not misread you, then I can beat you. And that’s one idea from game theory.

Rosie Blau [00:22:01] Cognitive hierarchy sounds like the very opposite of what I saw on the traitors last night. Because aren’t they all really anti anyone being clever and thinking that that means a sign that they must be a traitor?

Rosie Blau [00:22:01] Cognitive hierarchy sounds like the very opposite of what I saw on the traitors last night. Because aren’t they all really anti anyone being clever and thinking that that means a sign that they must be a traitor?

Gavin Jackson [00:22:13] Absolutely. So that’s I guess one of the things with the cognitive hierarchy is it’s not about seeming clever. It’s about being clever while seeming dumb is the best strategy. You want to double bluff and act like you’re dumb while actually being clever.

Gavin Jackson [00:22:13] Absolutely. So that’s I guess one of the things with the cognitive hierarchy is it’s not about seeming clever. It’s about being clever while seeming dumb is the best strategy. You want to double bluff and act like you’re dumb while actually being clever.

Rosie Blau [00:22:27] Some of them are trying that strategy of pretending that dumb, but thinking they’re clever though. So it sounds like that should work.

Rosie Blau [00:22:27] Some of them are trying that strategy of pretending that dumb, but thinking they’re clever though. So it sounds like that should work.

Gavin Jackson [00:22:34] So long as you can get away with it. Absolutely. If people cottoned on, I expect that’s probably your end of the time at the castle.

Gavin Jackson [00:22:34] So long as you can get away with it. Absolutely. If people cottoned on, I expect that’s probably your end of the time at the castle.

Rosie Blau [00:22:40] Well, thank you, Gavin. I found myself gripped and repulsed in equal measure by watching the traitors. But I may now go back for more just to learn about game theory.

Rosie Blau [00:22:40] Well, thank you, Gavin. I found myself gripped and repulsed in equal measure by watching the traitors. But I may now go back for more just to learn about game theory.

Gavin Jackson [00:22:49] Delighted to have given you the excuse to do so. Lovely to chat with you. Very.

Gavin Jackson [00:22:49] Delighted to have given you the excuse to do so. Lovely to chat with you. Very.

Rosie Blau [00:23:08] Subscribing to economist podcasts plus helps make our journalism possible. Thank you. Search Economist Podcast Plus for a free trial. That’s all for this episode of the Intelligence. Let us know what you think of the show. You can get in touch at podcasts@economist.com. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

Rosie Blau [00:23:08] Subscribing to economist podcasts plus helps make our journalism possible. Thank you. Search Economist Podcast Plus for a free trial. That’s all for this episode of the Intelligence. Let us know what you think of the show. You can get in touch at podcasts@economist.com. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

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