The world’s most populous country is at the front line of climate change. Our deputy editor explores the many ways it is adapting—because it must. Our series The World Ahead continues by examining the plausibility of the incoming Trump administration’s policy promises (10:26). And the robots that can at last help with grape harvesting (18:26). Runtime: 25 min

The world’s most populous country is at the front line of climate change. Our deputy editor explores the many ways it is <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/01/02/how-14bn-indians-are-adapting-to-climate-change?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners">adapting</a>—because it must. Our series The World Ahead continues by examining the <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/19/where-donald-trump-will-be-constrained-and-where-he-will-not?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners">plausibility</a> of the incoming Trump administration’s policy promises (10:26). And the robots that can at last help with <a href="https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/10/23/winemakers-are-building-grape-picking-robots?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners">grape harvesting</a> (18:26). Runtime: 25 min

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The Intelligence

How India is grappling with climate-change adaptation

Adaptitude: India and climate change

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Jason Palmer [00:00:03] The Economist. Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m Jason Palmer.

Jason Palmer [00:00:03] The Economist. Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m Jason Palmer.

Rosie Blau [00:00:14] And I’m Rosie Blau. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Rosie Blau [00:00:14] And I’m Rosie Blau. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

Jason Palmer [00:00:24] Given Donald Trump’s convincing win Republican control of Congress, a stacked Supreme Court. You might reckon he can do anything he likes. Not quite. As part of our series The World Ahead, we separate the probable from the unlikely from the. Forget about it.

Jason Palmer [00:00:24] Given Donald Trump’s convincing win Republican control of Congress, a stacked Supreme Court. You might reckon he can do anything he likes. Not quite. As part of our series The World Ahead, we separate the probable from the unlikely from the. Forget about it.

Rosie Blau [00:00:42] And robots have been used to make a lot of things more efficient on assembly lines, to clean floors, even to perform medical tests. Now a new robot is being tried out to pick grapes.

Rosie Blau [00:00:42] And robots have been used to make a lot of things more efficient on assembly lines, to clean floors, even to perform medical tests. Now a new robot is being tried out to pick grapes.

Jason Palmer [00:01:02] First up, though.

Jason Palmer [00:01:02] First up, though.

Speaker 3 [00:01:10] And there are three left and the right reading a little bit longer written an article about the lemon injury.

Speaker 3 [00:01:10] And there are three left and the right reading a little bit longer written an article about the lemon injury.

Robert Guest [00:01:16] This is Sukanya Ashwin. She’s a young mother living in Wayanad, a region in southern India. And recently, as we sat in a side room of her workplace, she told me of the terrible mudslide that almost took her whole family and did kill 17 of her neighbors in 2019.

Robert Guest [00:01:16] This is Sukanya Ashwin. She’s a young mother living in Wayanad, a region in southern India. And recently, as we sat in a side room of her workplace, she told me of the terrible mudslide that almost took her whole family and did kill 17 of her neighbors in 2019.

Speaker 3 [00:01:34] The very manicuring I started reading about in the very thought of adorableness and.

Speaker 3 [00:01:34] The very manicuring I started reading about in the very thought of adorableness and.

Robert Guest [00:01:41] The mudslide came very quickly.

Robert Guest [00:01:41] The mudslide came very quickly.

Jason Palmer [00:01:43] Robert Guest is a deputy editor at The Economist.

Jason Palmer [00:01:43] Robert Guest is a deputy editor at The Economist.

Robert Guest [00:01:46] Sukanya realized in the middle of the night that the back door had been blocked with shifting mud and they couldn’t get out. So she and her husband, they wrapped the two year old in a blanket and they waited out through the front door instead.

Robert Guest [00:01:46] Sukanya realized in the middle of the night that the back door had been blocked with shifting mud and they couldn’t get out. So she and her husband, they wrapped the two year old in a blanket and they waited out through the front door instead.

Speaker 3 [00:01:59] Are we going to come a deal later in England? Good, Ginny. It didn’t address all the negative. I wouldn’t say if I could do that. Well, I’ll make it a metaphor.

Speaker 3 [00:01:59] Are we going to come a deal later in England? Good, Ginny. It didn’t address all the negative. I wouldn’t say if I could do that. Well, I’ll make it a metaphor.

Robert Guest [00:02:09] They were lucky. As they left, their wardrobe floated off, and shortly afterwards, their whole house slipped down the hill. But they found safety on higher ground and her husband rushed off to help other people. There’s only so much he could do, though.

Robert Guest [00:02:09] They were lucky. As they left, their wardrobe floated off, and shortly afterwards, their whole house slipped down the hill. But they found safety on higher ground and her husband rushed off to help other people. There’s only so much he could do, though.

Speaker 3 [00:02:23] Fall it out. And reforms are very long. And I know I may go to my husband and Sukanya.

Speaker 3 [00:02:23] Fall it out. And reforms are very long. And I know I may go to my husband and Sukanya.

Robert Guest [00:02:30] As family are among the many in the world’s most populous nation whose lives are being disrupted by climate change and who are having to adapt.

Robert Guest [00:02:30] As family are among the many in the world’s most populous nation whose lives are being disrupted by climate change and who are having to adapt.

Jason Palmer [00:02:40] And it’s clear that that adaptation in India, it comes with specific challenges.

Jason Palmer [00:02:40] And it’s clear that that adaptation in India, it comes with specific challenges.

Robert Guest [00:02:45] Well, the country’s hotter than the global average and it’s getting hotter still and poorer than the global average. So a lot of its people don’t have much of a cushion when things go wrong. And there are 1.4 billion Indians. So it really matters that heat, drought and floods are all getting worse and will continue to for years to come. Spending on adaptation is already high. It rose from an estimated just under 4% of GDP in 2015 to nearly 6% in 2022. And still, a lot of experts say that’s not enough.

Robert Guest [00:02:45] Well, the country’s hotter than the global average and it’s getting hotter still and poorer than the global average. So a lot of its people don’t have much of a cushion when things go wrong. And there are 1.4 billion Indians. So it really matters that heat, drought and floods are all getting worse and will continue to for years to come. Spending on adaptation is already high. It rose from an estimated just under 4% of GDP in 2015 to nearly 6% in 2022. And still, a lot of experts say that’s not enough.

Jason Palmer [00:03:17] So what does adaptation look like? What are Indians doing to adapt?

Jason Palmer [00:03:17] So what does adaptation look like? What are Indians doing to adapt?

Robert Guest [00:03:21] One Responses to Move. That’s what Sukanya and her family did. And that’s what the World Bank predicts. Between 10 and 40 million people in South Asia will have to do because of climate change by 2050. But for most people, how will they cope? Will depend on the spread of know how old and new.

Robert Guest [00:03:21] One Responses to Move. That’s what Sukanya and her family did. And that’s what the World Bank predicts. Between 10 and 40 million people in South Asia will have to do because of climate change by 2050. But for most people, how will they cope? Will depend on the spread of know how old and new.

Jason Palmer [00:03:38] What do you mean by that?

Jason Palmer [00:03:38] What do you mean by that?

Robert Guest [00:03:39] Well, for example, to avoid future tragedies, researchers in Wayanad are devising early warning systems for mudslides.

Robert Guest [00:03:39] Well, for example, to avoid future tragedies, researchers in Wayanad are devising early warning systems for mudslides.

Speaker 3 [00:03:47] The White Mountains cannot hold that much of water because they are too high slope and the soil don’t have that much capacity to hold the excess water that is released through the high precipitation.

Speaker 3 [00:03:47] The White Mountains cannot hold that much of water because they are too high slope and the soil don’t have that much capacity to hold the excess water that is released through the high precipitation.

Robert Guest [00:03:59] S.K. Vishnu Das works for the Human Center for Ecology and Wildlife Biology.

Robert Guest [00:03:59] S.K. Vishnu Das works for the Human Center for Ecology and Wildlife Biology.

Speaker 3 [00:04:03] We developed a community based weather monitoring system after 2018 landslides and first in Kerala. We identified the local people for measuring rainfall. We trained them. And this local people are measuring rainfall data on a regular basis every day.

Speaker 3 [00:04:03] We developed a community based weather monitoring system after 2018 landslides and first in Kerala. We identified the local people for measuring rainfall. We trained them. And this local people are measuring rainfall data on a regular basis every day.

Robert Guest [00:04:17] So it’s about collecting micro data. You have farmers in landslide prone areas recording how much rain has fallen on their land. And then they put all these measurements together in a WhatsApp group. And that lets the researchers who give really accurate warnings about when the landscape is becoming unstable and therefore when people need to evacuate and also, crucially, where it’s safe to move to.

Robert Guest [00:04:17] So it’s about collecting micro data. You have farmers in landslide prone areas recording how much rain has fallen on their land. And then they put all these measurements together in a WhatsApp group. And that lets the researchers who give really accurate warnings about when the landscape is becoming unstable and therefore when people need to evacuate and also, crucially, where it’s safe to move to.

Jason Palmer [00:04:43] Yet, as you say, landslides, mudslides are far from the only problem that Indians face.

Jason Palmer [00:04:43] Yet, as you say, landslides, mudslides are far from the only problem that Indians face.

Robert Guest [00:04:49] The information is an essential tool to fight heat to. This is a big problem, especially in Indian cities. Poor neighborhoods tend to be much hotter than rich neighborhoods. The biggest slum in Mumbai is five degrees hotter than the neighborhood next door, which is a bit more prosperous. And a lot of that has to do with lack of shade. So if you’re able to teach people, look, if you plant a small amount of trees on the wasteland near your homes, it’s actually going to reduce the temperature for everyone and give shade. You know, maybe children can do their homework in rather than sweltering inside small, cramped houses with tin roofs. Climate change is making this more urgent for the worst heatwaves. And India will be three times of common if global warming is kept one and a half degrees and five times more of it hit two degrees by one estimate. A lot of the cities are trying to adapt with heat action plans, which involves not just planting trees for shade, but also issuing warnings when the temperature is too high and giving people drinking water in public places. But they really need to work on the architecture of cities rather than having lots of concrete and glass and relying on air conditioning, which frankly, not everyone can afford.

Robert Guest [00:04:49] The information is an essential tool to fight heat to. This is a big problem, especially in Indian cities. Poor neighborhoods tend to be much hotter than rich neighborhoods. The biggest slum in Mumbai is five degrees hotter than the neighborhood next door, which is a bit more prosperous. And a lot of that has to do with lack of shade. So if you’re able to teach people, look, if you plant a small amount of trees on the wasteland near your homes, it’s actually going to reduce the temperature for everyone and give shade. You know, maybe children can do their homework in rather than sweltering inside small, cramped houses with tin roofs. Climate change is making this more urgent for the worst heatwaves. And India will be three times of common if global warming is kept one and a half degrees and five times more of it hit two degrees by one estimate. A lot of the cities are trying to adapt with heat action plans, which involves not just planting trees for shade, but also issuing warnings when the temperature is too high and giving people drinking water in public places. But they really need to work on the architecture of cities rather than having lots of concrete and glass and relying on air conditioning, which frankly, not everyone can afford.

Jason Palmer [00:06:01] I mean, it’s a lot to tackle. What is the sort of single most urgent thing here?

Jason Palmer [00:06:01] I mean, it’s a lot to tackle. What is the sort of single most urgent thing here?

Robert Guest [00:06:06] The most urgent climate related problem in India is probably water stress. So 17 of the 28 Indian states suffer either high or extremely high water stress by one estimate, and all the climate is gradually making it worse.

Robert Guest [00:06:06] The most urgent climate related problem in India is probably water stress. So 17 of the 28 Indian states suffer either high or extremely high water stress by one estimate, and all the climate is gradually making it worse.

Jason Palmer [00:06:20] And by water stress, you mean just simply there’s not enough of it to go around? I mean, how to fix that?

Jason Palmer [00:06:20] And by water stress, you mean just simply there’s not enough of it to go around? I mean, how to fix that?

Robert Guest [00:06:25] So almost all Indian cities rely on costly engineering to pipe fresh water in from distant sources. But generally speaking, there’s not enough. Khurram ROV, the director of the Indian Institute for Human Settlements, told me that water is still a huge problem where he lives.

Robert Guest [00:06:25] So almost all Indian cities rely on costly engineering to pipe fresh water in from distant sources. But generally speaking, there’s not enough. Khurram ROV, the director of the Indian Institute for Human Settlements, told me that water is still a huge problem where he lives.

Speaker 3 [00:06:42] In a good city, you have water coming 24 by seven. The best parts of Bangalore will have water coming once in maybe 1 or 2 days. The worst would have water coming once every seven days or so.

Speaker 3 [00:06:42] In a good city, you have water coming 24 by seven. The best parts of Bangalore will have water coming once in maybe 1 or 2 days. The worst would have water coming once every seven days or so.

Robert Guest [00:06:53] In March 2024, Bangalore came close to running out of water. And that matters not just for Bangalore, but also for the surrounding countryside, which relies on a lot of the same water sources, the same river Hamal has a partial solution to do with water recycling.

Robert Guest [00:06:53] In March 2024, Bangalore came close to running out of water. And that matters not just for Bangalore, but also for the surrounding countryside, which relies on a lot of the same water sources, the same river Hamal has a partial solution to do with water recycling.

Speaker 3 [00:07:08] What you’re going to see is an attempt to take a large amount of water from the city and make that available to agriculturalists in the periphery who are growing things, who actually would normally be growing 1 or 2 crops in the season and are significantly impacted by the monsoon and climate.

Speaker 3 [00:07:08] What you’re going to see is an attempt to take a large amount of water from the city and make that available to agriculturalists in the periphery who are growing things, who actually would normally be growing 1 or 2 crops in the season and are significantly impacted by the monsoon and climate.

Robert Guest [00:07:24] Change by cleaning up wastewater from homes and factories. So it’s not clean enough to drink, but it’s good enough for irrigating crops. They’re able to recharge the groundwater that farmers use.

Robert Guest [00:07:24] Change by cleaning up wastewater from homes and factories. So it’s not clean enough to drink, but it’s good enough for irrigating crops. They’re able to recharge the groundwater that farmers use.

Jason Palmer [00:07:35] You say that’s a sort of partial solution to the problem at hand.

Jason Palmer [00:07:35] You say that’s a sort of partial solution to the problem at hand.

Robert Guest [00:07:39] Yeah, well, if you want to fix the issue completely, you have to think about price. So right now in India, farmers pay nothing for the groundwater they use under their land or the water they take from rivers. So they don’t have much of incentive to conserve and householders tend not to pay very much either. It’s only really big business that pays a realistic price for water, and that’s where you see a flurry of high tech firms devising clever ways to use it more efficiently.

Robert Guest [00:07:39] Yeah, well, if you want to fix the issue completely, you have to think about price. So right now in India, farmers pay nothing for the groundwater they use under their land or the water they take from rivers. So they don’t have much of incentive to conserve and householders tend not to pay very much either. It’s only really big business that pays a realistic price for water, and that’s where you see a flurry of high tech firms devising clever ways to use it more efficiently.

Speaker 3 [00:08:04] Because there’s a shortage and competition for water. Industries are buying today water almost like ten times the price they were buying almost like five years back.

Speaker 3 [00:08:04] Because there’s a shortage and competition for water. Industries are buying today water almost like ten times the price they were buying almost like five years back.

Robert Guest [00:08:16] Ganesh Shankar is the boss of Flux.

Robert Guest [00:08:16] Ganesh Shankar is the boss of Flux.

Speaker 3 [00:08:18] Jan Luxton helps in digitization of the water infrastructure. Be sure that water is actually captured and put into the cloud. And using artificial intelligence, we’ve been able to identify inefficiencies in the water, such as leakage, wastage, excessive usage, and also ensures the rainwater harvesting system is efficiently operated and the wastewater treatment produces enough water to augment the freshwater need.

Speaker 3 [00:08:18] Jan Luxton helps in digitization of the water infrastructure. Be sure that water is actually captured and put into the cloud. And using artificial intelligence, we’ve been able to identify inefficiencies in the water, such as leakage, wastage, excessive usage, and also ensures the rainwater harvesting system is efficiently operated and the wastewater treatment produces enough water to augment the freshwater need.

Robert Guest [00:08:48] Ganesh says his technology can reduce freshwater consumption by 30%.

Robert Guest [00:08:48] Ganesh says his technology can reduce freshwater consumption by 30%.

Jason Palmer [00:08:54] But as we’re on the question of what two things cost to do to change for the better, what about the rich poor divide that you said it’s already clear in terms of adaptation in India?

Jason Palmer [00:08:54] But as we’re on the question of what two things cost to do to change for the better, what about the rich poor divide that you said it’s already clear in terms of adaptation in India?

Robert Guest [00:09:04] Well, inevitably, rich people will be able to adapt faster than poor people. I mean, that’s just what rich people can do. You see, the biggest, most sophisticated cities will will adapt the quickest. But overall, water management is improving in most Indian states. But still, an unofficial survey in 2021 found that about half the cities with more than a million inhabitants were doing nothing at all to recycle the water. So there’s a chance that the terrible air quality in big cities like Delhi, which is not directly related to climate change, might nonetheless wake politicians up to the need to do something about green politics. One expert I spoke to, Sunita Narain of the Center for Science and Environment, was quite optimistic.

Robert Guest [00:09:04] Well, inevitably, rich people will be able to adapt faster than poor people. I mean, that’s just what rich people can do. You see, the biggest, most sophisticated cities will will adapt the quickest. But overall, water management is improving in most Indian states. But still, an unofficial survey in 2021 found that about half the cities with more than a million inhabitants were doing nothing at all to recycle the water. So there’s a chance that the terrible air quality in big cities like Delhi, which is not directly related to climate change, might nonetheless wake politicians up to the need to do something about green politics. One expert I spoke to, Sunita Narain of the Center for Science and Environment, was quite optimistic.

Speaker 3 [00:09:47] We are headed thinking practice may not be so remote. But I think with climate change, the practice is going to go up.

Speaker 3 [00:09:47] We are headed thinking practice may not be so remote. But I think with climate change, the practice is going to go up.

Robert Guest [00:09:55] She says that as climate change progresses and the need to adapt becomes more obvious, that innovation will speed up. She’d better be right.

Robert Guest [00:09:55] She says that as climate change progresses and the need to adapt becomes more obvious, that innovation will speed up. She’d better be right.

Jason Palmer [00:10:06] Thanks very much for your time, Robert.

Jason Palmer [00:10:06] Thanks very much for your time, Robert.

Robert Guest [00:10:08] Thank you. Jason.

Robert Guest [00:10:08] Thank you. Jason.

Jason Palmer [00:10:29] While running for reelection, Donald Trump was mostly back to his old ways of making promises without ever really putting forward a policy platform. When he won in November, he made a pretty broad pledge.

Jason Palmer [00:10:29] While running for reelection, Donald Trump was mostly back to his old ways of making promises without ever really putting forward a policy platform. When he won in November, he made a pretty broad pledge.

Robert Guest [00:10:41] We have a country that needs help and it needs help very badly. We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country and.

Robert Guest [00:10:41] We have a country that needs help and it needs help very badly. We’re going to fix our borders. We’re going to fix everything about our country and.

Jason Palmer [00:10:51] Everything about America. Like I say, pretty broad, concrete stuff was hard to come by, with the exception of the 20 headline policy priorities published during the campaign. Thing is, as much as America’s is a powerful presidency and the Republican Party has a lock on Congress, Mr. Trump can’t just do anything and everything. So what will he be able to pull off? Tricky question. So as part of our World Ahead Series, I asked John Prideaux from the United States, editor and host of Checks and Balance, our sister show on American politics.

Jason Palmer [00:10:51] Everything about America. Like I say, pretty broad, concrete stuff was hard to come by, with the exception of the 20 headline policy priorities published during the campaign. Thing is, as much as America’s is a powerful presidency and the Republican Party has a lock on Congress, Mr. Trump can’t just do anything and everything. So what will he be able to pull off? Tricky question. So as part of our World Ahead Series, I asked John Prideaux from the United States, editor and host of Checks and Balance, our sister show on American politics.

John Prideaux [00:11:30] It may be hard to get inside Donald Trump’s head. He changes his mind. He can be unpredictable, inconsistent. Another way to do it is to look and say, okay, given these are Donald Trump’s stated policy goals. In which areas does he actually have the power to make these things happen? And so what I did is go through all of those pledges and assign them a score between 1 and 5, where five is a dead cert and one seems highly unlikely.

John Prideaux [00:11:30] It may be hard to get inside Donald Trump’s head. He changes his mind. He can be unpredictable, inconsistent. Another way to do it is to look and say, okay, given these are Donald Trump’s stated policy goals. In which areas does he actually have the power to make these things happen? And so what I did is go through all of those pledges and assign them a score between 1 and 5, where five is a dead cert and one seems highly unlikely.

Jason Palmer [00:11:57] Right. So like hurricanes like Defcon. Okay, let’s start with the easy stuff then, John, of Mr. Trump’s 20 policy priorities, which are the ones most likely to happen.

Jason Palmer [00:11:57] Right. So like hurricanes like Defcon. Okay, let’s start with the easy stuff then, John, of Mr. Trump’s 20 policy priorities, which are the ones most likely to happen.

John Prideaux [00:12:06] So the pledges that are most likely to be fulfilled, I think odd things that have happened before Donald Trump became president. And so when he becomes president, he can just look at them and declare that it is so one of them is record energy production, record fossil fuel production. That’s already the case under the Biden administration. Another one also in that category is to make America’s economy hugely successful, make it great again. America’s economy is extraordinarily strong, has been for some time, is the envy of other rich world countries. So that’s sort of done already as well. And also in this category is to make America’s cities beautiful again. I would argue that with the possible exception of Houston, which has other things going for it, most big American cities are rather beautiful. They have spectacular architecture and they’re generally great places to live. So I think that’s a take as well.

John Prideaux [00:12:06] So the pledges that are most likely to be fulfilled, I think odd things that have happened before Donald Trump became president. And so when he becomes president, he can just look at them and declare that it is so one of them is record energy production, record fossil fuel production. That’s already the case under the Biden administration. Another one also in that category is to make America’s economy hugely successful, make it great again. America’s economy is extraordinarily strong, has been for some time, is the envy of other rich world countries. So that’s sort of done already as well. And also in this category is to make America’s cities beautiful again. I would argue that with the possible exception of Houston, which has other things going for it, most big American cities are rather beautiful. They have spectacular architecture and they’re generally great places to live. So I think that’s a take as well.

Jason Palmer [00:12:58] Q The letter writing from Houston writes Okay, so let’s keep moving through the categories. What’s the next most likely bucket of things?

Jason Palmer [00:12:58] Q The letter writing from Houston writes Okay, so let’s keep moving through the categories. What’s the next most likely bucket of things?

John Prideaux [00:13:06] So Category four is things that I think are almost certain to happen, things that are within the President’s power and look very likely to be achieved. So one of those would be scrapping the EV mandate, which came in under the Biden administration to try and encourage Americans to buy electric cars. Donald Trump has said he would scrap that. That’s something he can do through executive action or executive order. Doesn’t need Congress to do that. Another would be cutting regulation broadly. That’s something that the Trump administration did a fair bit of in the first term. He famously now has Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy working on this. That’s likely to happen. And I don’t think you have to cut a load of regulation to define that. Is a promise fulfilled. Another one is keeping the dollar as the reserve currency. It’s really hard to see anything happening over the next four years that would change that. Another one in this bucket would be tax cuts.

John Prideaux [00:13:06] So Category four is things that I think are almost certain to happen, things that are within the President’s power and look very likely to be achieved. So one of those would be scrapping the EV mandate, which came in under the Biden administration to try and encourage Americans to buy electric cars. Donald Trump has said he would scrap that. That’s something he can do through executive action or executive order. Doesn’t need Congress to do that. Another would be cutting regulation broadly. That’s something that the Trump administration did a fair bit of in the first term. He famously now has Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy working on this. That’s likely to happen. And I don’t think you have to cut a load of regulation to define that. Is a promise fulfilled. Another one is keeping the dollar as the reserve currency. It’s really hard to see anything happening over the next four years that would change that. Another one in this bucket would be tax cuts.

Jason Palmer [00:14:00] Moving swiftly along, the neither likely nor unlikely. Squishy middle ground.

Jason Palmer [00:14:00] Moving swiftly along, the neither likely nor unlikely. Squishy middle ground.

John Prideaux [00:14:05] I’m going to put tariffs in Category three. I think tariffs will go up. But on the trail, Donald Trump said he would introduce a 10% universal tariff. He then increased it to a 20% universal tariff on all American imports. I’m not sure that’s going to happen because I think that would be inflationary and would get unpopular pretty quickly. Also in Category three, I would put the pledge to stop trans girls competing in women’s sports. This promise is a hard one to bring about. I expect to see an executive order from the Donald Trump White House that will be tied to federal education funding. Trying to use that as a lever to change policy on that. But the federal government doesn’t have absolute power over what happens in American schools, doesn’t have absolute power over all the many sports clubs throughout the country.

John Prideaux [00:14:05] I’m going to put tariffs in Category three. I think tariffs will go up. But on the trail, Donald Trump said he would introduce a 10% universal tariff. He then increased it to a 20% universal tariff on all American imports. I’m not sure that’s going to happen because I think that would be inflationary and would get unpopular pretty quickly. Also in Category three, I would put the pledge to stop trans girls competing in women’s sports. This promise is a hard one to bring about. I expect to see an executive order from the Donald Trump White House that will be tied to federal education funding. Trying to use that as a lever to change policy on that. But the federal government doesn’t have absolute power over what happens in American schools, doesn’t have absolute power over all the many sports clubs throughout the country.

Jason Palmer [00:14:58] Moving swiftly along again to less likely still Bucket two.

Jason Palmer [00:14:58] Moving swiftly along again to less likely still Bucket two.

John Prideaux [00:15:03] Bucket two. I have record deportations. Donald Trump was very clear that he wants to increase the number of illegal or undocumented workers in America who are deported in his next four years. I think it’s pretty likely he will do that. However, if you’re looking at record deportations, then that’s a pretty specific promise and you have to go back and look at previous records. So the most recent record high was actually when Barack Obama was president. And then at the peak here, about 400,000 people were deported in order to fulfill that pledge to get a level higher than Barrack Obama was at. There’s lots of stuff you have to do. You have to build more migrant detention centers. You have to have even more funding for Customs and Border Patrol, which is very, very high already at a time when there’s lots of competition for money and the budget. But going back even further, Jason, if you look under President Eisenhower’s presidency, then there was a huge deportation program. Most historians think that in the peak year of that, about 2 million people were deported. So I think there’s a limit practically there. I think there’s also a political limit. More than half of undocumented migrants in America have been there for more than ten years. These are people who are really knitted into their communities. I would expect that were the federal government to uproot 10 million people, as Donald Trump has sometimes suggested he would. That would get unpopular fast. And Donald Trump doesn’t actually like being unpopular. So I think that’s a constraint to.

John Prideaux [00:15:03] Bucket two. I have record deportations. Donald Trump was very clear that he wants to increase the number of illegal or undocumented workers in America who are deported in his next four years. I think it’s pretty likely he will do that. However, if you’re looking at record deportations, then that’s a pretty specific promise and you have to go back and look at previous records. So the most recent record high was actually when Barack Obama was president. And then at the peak here, about 400,000 people were deported in order to fulfill that pledge to get a level higher than Barrack Obama was at. There’s lots of stuff you have to do. You have to build more migrant detention centers. You have to have even more funding for Customs and Border Patrol, which is very, very high already at a time when there’s lots of competition for money and the budget. But going back even further, Jason, if you look under President Eisenhower’s presidency, then there was a huge deportation program. Most historians think that in the peak year of that, about 2 million people were deported. So I think there’s a limit practically there. I think there’s also a political limit. More than half of undocumented migrants in America have been there for more than ten years. These are people who are really knitted into their communities. I would expect that were the federal government to uproot 10 million people, as Donald Trump has sometimes suggested he would. That would get unpopular fast. And Donald Trump doesn’t actually like being unpopular. So I think that’s a constraint to.

Jason Palmer [00:16:35] So that then brings us to bucket number one, which I guess for you is just simply ain’t going to happen.

Jason Palmer [00:16:35] So that then brings us to bucket number one, which I guess for you is just simply ain’t going to happen.

John Prideaux[00:16:40] In bucket one, Jason, are make American students and universities patriotic again. I hope American students are as patriotic as the next American. However, telling them to be patriotic, the White House issuing orders ain’t going to work. If anything, it’ll have the reverse effect and students will react against it. So that’s in category one. Also in category one is peace in the Middle East. Several thousand years of history suggest that it’ll be a stretch. And then also category one is build an iron dome over America. Like Israel’s missile defense shield. With American made technology and weapons. The people I’ve talked to just suggested that is not practical, in large part because America is bigger than Israel.

John Prideaux[00:16:40] In bucket one, Jason, are make American students and universities patriotic again. I hope American students are as patriotic as the next American. However, telling them to be patriotic, the White House issuing orders ain’t going to work. If anything, it’ll have the reverse effect and students will react against it. So that’s in category one. Also in category one is peace in the Middle East. Several thousand years of history suggest that it’ll be a stretch. And then also category one is build an iron dome over America. Like Israel’s missile defense shield. With American made technology and weapons. The people I’ve talked to just suggested that is not practical, in large part because America is bigger than Israel.

Jason Palmer [00:17:27] So some things then that Mr. Trump will find easy or already done, some things that are kind of in the middle, some things that are going to be functionally impossible. What is he going to call a win out of all of this?

Jason Palmer [00:17:27] So some things then that Mr. Trump will find easy or already done, some things that are kind of in the middle, some things that are going to be functionally impossible. What is he going to call a win out of all of this?

John Prideaux [00:17:38] One of the things about Donald Trump is that he can define reality as he wishes it to be. I think on many measures, America is doing extraordinarily well at the moment. Its economy is strong. Crime is falling. The country is moving in the right direction. Donald Trump will be able to come in and say, look at all the ways the country is flourishing and claim victory for that. And if you look at polling now, such as the partizanship in the country and such as the degree to which people get their news from different sources, that won’t seem strange to lots of people.

John Prideaux [00:17:38] One of the things about Donald Trump is that he can define reality as he wishes it to be. I think on many measures, America is doing extraordinarily well at the moment. Its economy is strong. Crime is falling. The country is moving in the right direction. Donald Trump will be able to come in and say, look at all the ways the country is flourishing and claim victory for that. And if you look at polling now, such as the partizanship in the country and such as the degree to which people get their news from different sources, that won’t seem strange to lots of people.

Jason Palmer [00:18:10] John, thanks very much for joining us.

Jason Palmer [00:18:10] John, thanks very much for joining us.

Robert Guest [00:18:11] Thanks, Jason.

Alex Hern The English countryside is increasingly full of vineyards.

Alex Hern The English countryside is increasingly full of vineyards.

Rosie Blau [00:18:39] Alex Hearn writes about artificial intelligence.

Rosie Blau [00:18:39] Alex Hearn writes about artificial intelligence.

Alex Hern [00:18:42] The Crouch Valley in Essex and Northern Kent are surprisingly good areas for growing the sorts of grapes that in France get used to make champagne. Here they get used to make English quality sparkling wine a very carefully legally protected term. I discovered when I went out to Saffron Grange to one of these vineyards. Unlike champagne, obviously, this isn’t a storied industry. The buildings and the human landscape of the English wine industry are new and they are purpose built. You don’t have the lovely tumbledown shacks of Burgundy or champagne. You have big steel sheds and some nice glass tasting rooms. And at least when I visited Saffron Grange, there was another thing that was different as well. Two robots prepped for plucking grapes from the vines for the first time.

Alex Hern [00:18:42] The Crouch Valley in Essex and Northern Kent are surprisingly good areas for growing the sorts of grapes that in France get used to make champagne. Here they get used to make English quality sparkling wine a very carefully legally protected term. I discovered when I went out to Saffron Grange to one of these vineyards. Unlike champagne, obviously, this isn’t a storied industry. The buildings and the human landscape of the English wine industry are new and they are purpose built. You don’t have the lovely tumbledown shacks of Burgundy or champagne. You have big steel sheds and some nice glass tasting rooms. And at least when I visited Saffron Grange, there was another thing that was different as well. Two robots prepped for plucking grapes from the vines for the first time.

Rosie Blau [00:19:32] So, Alex, Robots wasn’t where I was thinking you were going with that. Tell me about these robots.

Rosie Blau [00:19:32] So, Alex, Robots wasn’t where I was thinking you were going with that. Tell me about these robots.

Alex Hern[00:19:37] This is a partnership between Queen Mary University London, a robotics company called Extend Robotics and the Vineyard itself. The hope is to solve a few problems at once. When you send a human out to pick grapes. It’s not like harvesting cereals, right? The reason why agricultural robotics works if you’re growing wheat or corn is when it’s harvest time, you’re rip it all up. You go top to bottom of the field. Turn everything up sorted out later. And that’s why a combine harvester works. You don’t do that with grapes. You don’t operate the vines, for one thing. But you don’t even want to pluck every single grape you see. Instead, you go down the same road multiple days, only picking the ripe grapes each time. So if you want to get a robot involved, it has to be able to tell whether or not a grape is ripe. It has to do that really using the same way a person would. And you do it with very rough heuristics, right? You you look at a grape, you tell if it’s roughly the right size, roughly the right color. And you as a skilled agricultural laborer will know, maybe I should leave this till tomorrow. Maybe I should pick it now. You’ll even do things like assess whether or not there’s a frost coming. And perhaps you should pick some grapes that are slightly less than perfect quality rather than risk them dying on the vine.

Alex Hern[00:19:37] This is a partnership between Queen Mary University London, a robotics company called Extend Robotics and the Vineyard itself. The hope is to solve a few problems at once. When you send a human out to pick grapes. It’s not like harvesting cereals, right? The reason why agricultural robotics works if you’re growing wheat or corn is when it’s harvest time, you’re rip it all up. You go top to bottom of the field. Turn everything up sorted out later. And that’s why a combine harvester works. You don’t do that with grapes. You don’t operate the vines, for one thing. But you don’t even want to pluck every single grape you see. Instead, you go down the same road multiple days, only picking the ripe grapes each time. So if you want to get a robot involved, it has to be able to tell whether or not a grape is ripe. It has to do that really using the same way a person would. And you do it with very rough heuristics, right? You you look at a grape, you tell if it’s roughly the right size, roughly the right color. And you as a skilled agricultural laborer will know, maybe I should leave this till tomorrow. Maybe I should pick it now. You’ll even do things like assess whether or not there’s a frost coming. And perhaps you should pick some grapes that are slightly less than perfect quality rather than risk them dying on the vine.

Rosie Blau [00:20:50] So how does a robot work out which grapes to pick?

Rosie Blau [00:20:50] So how does a robot work out which grapes to pick?

Alex Hern [00:20:54] The goal here is to use a technique called visual spectrometry in the lab. This is not easy, but fairly straightforward. If you or I look at a glass of water, it see through. If we look at a glass of ethanol, it’s also see through an unpleasant mistake to make if you try and chug one of them. If you’ve got the right sensitive camera, though, you can tell the difference. The wavelengths of light that pass through each of those transparent liquids are certainly different. And if you can pull up a spectrograph, the full chart of all of the wavelengths of light that pass through it, you can tell what water is and what ethanol is very easily. The trick is doing that not with glasses of water, but with grapes and not in a lab on a vine and not lit by a perfect white spotlight, but by the sun. That’s somewhat harder, right? But the goal here is to build something that can ultimately look at a grape on the vine and tell from the light that passes through that grape exactly what the sugar level is and from that sugar level to work out if it’s at the optimum ripeness.

Alex Hern [00:20:54] The goal here is to use a technique called visual spectrometry in the lab. This is not easy, but fairly straightforward. If you or I look at a glass of water, it see through. If we look at a glass of ethanol, it’s also see through an unpleasant mistake to make if you try and chug one of them. If you’ve got the right sensitive camera, though, you can tell the difference. The wavelengths of light that pass through each of those transparent liquids are certainly different. And if you can pull up a spectrograph, the full chart of all of the wavelengths of light that pass through it, you can tell what water is and what ethanol is very easily. The trick is doing that not with glasses of water, but with grapes and not in a lab on a vine and not lit by a perfect white spotlight, but by the sun. That’s somewhat harder, right? But the goal here is to build something that can ultimately look at a grape on the vine and tell from the light that passes through that grape exactly what the sugar level is and from that sugar level to work out if it’s at the optimum ripeness.

Rosie Blau [00:21:57] And if this works, what difference would it actually make to the winemaking business?

Rosie Blau [00:21:57] And if this works, what difference would it actually make to the winemaking business?

Alex Hern [00:22:02] A pretty chunky one. Harvesting the grapes for wine is where you have to be incredibly precise. You will not find many soft fruits that have a sort of single day window of ripeness. But if you want to make the best champagne or in England’s case, sparkling wine, you have to really get that window down. Your harvest will be about two weeks. But any individual grape on any individual vine, that’ll be a day may be two that you would ideally like to harvest if you do it too early. The sugar level will be too low, do too late and you run the risk of it going rotten, being eaten, being frostbitten. Any of the other things that can cause your harvest to fail? Interestingly, one of the problems that you’ve had with climate change in England and France and around the world is that grapes are getting sweeter because they’re growing. Period is better because it’s warmer. But that means that the resulting alcohol is getting stronger. So increasingly, farmers vineyard owners are having to move the harvest earlier for fear of making ever stronger. Often roses is the problem that.

Alex Hern [00:22:02] A pretty chunky one. Harvesting the grapes for wine is where you have to be incredibly precise. You will not find many soft fruits that have a sort of single day window of ripeness. But if you want to make the best champagne or in England’s case, sparkling wine, you have to really get that window down. Your harvest will be about two weeks. But any individual grape on any individual vine, that’ll be a day may be two that you would ideally like to harvest if you do it too early. The sugar level will be too low, do too late and you run the risk of it going rotten, being eaten, being frostbitten. Any of the other things that can cause your harvest to fail? Interestingly, one of the problems that you’ve had with climate change in England and France and around the world is that grapes are getting sweeter because they’re growing. Period is better because it’s warmer. But that means that the resulting alcohol is getting stronger. So increasingly, farmers vineyard owners are having to move the harvest earlier for fear of making ever stronger. Often roses is the problem that.

Rosie Blau [00:23:06] Some wouldn’t say that’s a problem. So what you’re saying is that having robots picking grapes theoretically saves you money in the picking process, but it also means you get better grapes or rather at the right time. How likely is this actually to happen?

Rosie Blau [00:23:06] Some wouldn’t say that’s a problem. So what you’re saying is that having robots picking grapes theoretically saves you money in the picking process, but it also means you get better grapes or rather at the right time. How likely is this actually to happen?

Alex Hern [00:23:21] One of the really compelling things about this project is they’re not trying to jump straight to full automation. The thing that makes fine wine uniquely suitable for this is even if you don’t have an automated robot, you can still make some of this investment work out. There’s the prospect, for instance, of setting up floodlights and letting workers in Australia where the harvest happens at the other half of the year from the UK. Dial in pilot these robots virtually and pick overnight in the UK. So you can compress a two week harvest to one week, make the most of that incredibly tight window of optimum ripeness and then reciprocate when your laborers have nothing to pick in the British Spring and Australia is in the middle of its harvest season and then hopefully in 3 or 4 years you end up with something that can become semi-automated, can be guided, but no longer need a human hand explicitly saying this grape in this great place.

Alex Hern [00:23:21] One of the really compelling things about this project is they’re not trying to jump straight to full automation. The thing that makes fine wine uniquely suitable for this is even if you don’t have an automated robot, you can still make some of this investment work out. There’s the prospect, for instance, of setting up floodlights and letting workers in Australia where the harvest happens at the other half of the year from the UK. Dial in pilot these robots virtually and pick overnight in the UK. So you can compress a two week harvest to one week, make the most of that incredibly tight window of optimum ripeness and then reciprocate when your laborers have nothing to pick in the British Spring and Australia is in the middle of its harvest season and then hopefully in 3 or 4 years you end up with something that can become semi-automated, can be guided, but no longer need a human hand explicitly saying this grape in this great place.

Rosie Blau [00:24:19] Fascinating stuff. Thanks so much, Alex.

Rosie Blau [00:24:19] Fascinating stuff. Thanks so much, Alex.

Alex Hern [00:24:22] Thank you for having me.

Alex Hern [00:24:22] Thank you for having me.

Jason Palmer [00:24:39] That’s all for this episode of the intelligence. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

Jason Palmer [00:24:39] That’s all for this episode of the intelligence. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

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