Five charts show how Trump won the election

Nov 7th 2024

Donald Trump’s victory came swiftly and decisively. Before even 6am Eastern time on Wednesday, he had won the election. Expect months, if not years, of debate over the Democrats’ missteps, of which there are plenty to scrutinise. But Mr Trump’s strengths must be recognised, too. Our five charts below show America’s sizeable shift away from the Democrats, and towards MAGA Republicanism.

Start with county-level data. With 95% of votes counted, Mr Trump had increased his vote share in 89% of counties compared with 2020. That was true even in reliably blue states: in New York, for example, he secured 44% of the vote as of November 7th (with some counties left to count), up from 38% in 2020. In New Jersey he lost to Kamala Harris by just five points, compared with a 16-point gap against Mr Biden. Forty-seven counties flipped from Democrat to Republican (see chart 1).

Ms Harris lagged behind Mr Biden’s performance in suburban counties across the country, which are important battlegrounds for both parties. That led to her winning far more narrowly than was expected in states such as Virginia, and losing in others, such as Pennsylvania.

Next, consider demographic data. Exit polls by Edison Research, a data company, are the most common method of analysing such patterns. These surveys are prone to well-known errors. But as long as these errors are relatively consistent over time, comparing exit polls in 2024 with those of 2020 should provide a like-for-like assessment of the swings. No group appears to have moved further towards Mr Trump than Hispanic voters (see chart 2). Edison’s exit polls show that Ms Harris’s margin across the country with this group was just six points; in 2020 the same polls showed that Mr Biden carried it by 33 points.

This shift is especially stark among men, who went from supporting Mr Biden by 23 points in 2020, to favouring Mr Trump by 12 points (though other exit polls gave Mr Trump a smaller margin than that this year). This trend holds up well when analysing the official results, rather than relying on exit polls. Ms Harris won a substantially lower share of the vote in heavily Hispanic counties compared with Mr Biden, especially in Florida. (Read our full analysis of the Hispanic swing.)

Black voters mostly stuck with the Democrats. In 2020 Mr Biden won 87% of the black vote—roughly the same share as Ms Harris did this year, although that is still far lower than the margins Democrats used to get. In an effort to retain support among a key demographic, Ms Harris’s campaign released an “opportunity agenda for black men” promising, among other things, to provide more business loans to entrepreneurs. In the end Ms Harris did better than Mr Biden with black women and college-educated voters, but she fell behind on black men and rural voters (see chart 3).

Ahead of the election, much was made of Mr Trump’s courting of low-propensity voters (a wonky term for those who are eligible to vote but often stay at home on election day). Mr Trump bet big on young men who have historically not had much trust or interest in politics, using the likes of Elon Musk and Joe Rogan, a podcast host, to drum up support among their fans.

But there is little evidence from the exit polls that the bros helped seal Mr Trump’s comeback. The biggest swings among young voters came from Hispanics, whose growing fondness for Mr Trump spanned age groups. In fact, young white people aged 18 to 29 moved closer to the Democrats regardless of their education level. Surprisingly, Mr Trump closed the gap on his 2020 showing with young women—albeit marginally—by almost as much as he did with young men (but women were still more likely to vote for Ms Harris).

If there is one topic that Democrats had hoped would work in their favour, it was abortion. Mr Trump himself took credit for overturning Roe v Wade, and with it the constitutional right to an abortion, by appointing three conservative justices to the Supreme Court. The decision angered many American women. Polls had suggested that Ms Harris could win back some of those who had voted for Mr Trump in 2020.

In fact the exit polls show little movement in the way women voted in 2024 compared with four years ago. Ms Harris still enjoyed a comfortable lead among young and college-educated women. But Mr Trump narrowed the gap among other groups, such as rural women and those without a degree (see chart 5). Exit polls published by the Associated Press also show that Mr Trump’s appeal grew among 18- to 44-year-old women.

Polling had suggested that the election would be the closest in decades. In the end Mr Trump won not just the electoral vote, but seemed on track to win the popular vote, too—the first Republican to do so since George W. Bush in 2004. Americans have handed him a clear mandate. ■

Five charts show how Trump won the election

Where did he pick up support compared with 2020?

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