Finance & economics | Free exchange

Why long-term economic growth often disappoints

A new paper suggests technological progress is overrated

FROM THE point of view of the 1950s, America’s economic progress over the 70 years that followed has been a huge disappointment. Futurists foresaw a world of super-pills, space farms and cities encased in glass. Science and technology would engineer unending riches and everything consumers could ever want. Yet the speed of gains achieved during the Space Age, it turned out, soon ebbed: between 2000 and 2019 America’s real income per head grew by 1.2% a year on average, down from 2% between 1980 and 1999 and 2.5% in the 1950s. And instead of flying cars, Peter Thiel, a venture capitalist, once jibed, “we got 140 characters”.

This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Growing Solow”

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